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LIGHTPATH TECHNOLOGIES INC (LPTH)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Revenue was $7.4M, up 1.5% YoY but down sequentially from $8.4M; gross margin fell to 26% on mix and yield, driving a wider net loss of $2.6M ($0.07) and EBITDA loss of $1.5M; management cited China export restrictions (incl. germanium) that pushed ~$0.75M of shipments into Q3 as a key headwind .
- Strategic highlight: acquisition of G5 Infrared adds high-ASP, higher-margin cooled IR cameras; management expects combined revenue of at least $55M in the 12 months post-close; G5’s earn-out implies $21–$27M revenue in the next 12 months for G5 alone, and camera-mix to lift margins over time .
- Defense momentum: sustained deliveries to a European FPV drone program, initial European defense development contract for BlackDiamond optics, and subsequent $4.8M G5 order for 2025 delivery; backlog stood at $19.8M at 12/31/24 .
- Estimates context: S&P Global consensus could not be retrieved during this session; no formal numeric guidance issued—management reiterated a long-term 15% EBITDA margin target and indicated the combined company should be EBITDA positive in the June quarter seasonally, despite G5’s Q3–Q4 seasonal dip (S&P Global consensus unavailable this session).
- Stock reaction catalysts: integration updates and order flow from naval/Border Patrol/C-UAS programs of record, progress on Lockheed missile program flight tests, OGI quantification milestone/ramp, and supply chain normalization from China headwinds .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Accretive G5 Infrared acquisition expands into cooled IR cameras with ASPs of $50K–$500K and historically ~20%+ EBITDA margins; management expects combined revenue ≥$55M in the next 12 months and long-run 15% EBITDA margins. “Transformative step” toward a vertically integrated IR platform .
- Defense traction: began sustained deliveries of IR assemblies for European FPV drones; secured an initial BlackDiamond development contract in Europe; subsequent to quarter, G5 received a $4.8M qualification order for 2025 deliveries .
- Mix shift opportunity: camera-heavy portfolio (uncooled + cooled) should blend margins up; CFO affirmed cameras carry higher margins than visible/IR components and expects positive EBITDA for the combined company in the June quarter .
What Went Wrong
- Sequential slowdown: revenue fell q/q ($7.4M vs $8.4M), gross margin dropped to 26% (from 34%), and net loss widened; non-GAAP EBITDA loss increased to $1.5M .
- Supply chain disruption: China’s germanium/export restrictions stalled broader optics shipments (including non-germanium ZnSe/ZnS), pushing >$0.75M revenue out of Q2; management is sourcing locally for U.S. germanium and migrating customers to BlackDiamond to mitigate .
- OGI ramp slower than expected pending quantification testing (ppm detection); furnace camera variant progressing, but OGI commercialization timing is extending pending test results in Salt Lake City .
Financial Results
Summary P&L (oldest → newest)
Segment/Product Group Revenue ($M)
Notes: Q2 YoY changes per press release: IR components -13%, Visible +3%, Assemblies -13%, Engineering +797% .
KPIs and Balance Sheet Snapshots
Estimates vs. Actuals: S&P Global consensus was not retrievable during this session; therefore, estimate comparisons are omitted (S&P Global consensus unavailable).
Guidance Changes
Note: Company did not issue formal numeric quarterly guidance; these are management outlook statements from press release/call.
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “The acquisition of G5 Infrared is a key and transformative event… a logical next step… G5… delivering strong margins and EBITDAs of around or higher than 20% consistently.” — Sam Rubin, CEO .
- “We expect our combined revenue in the next 12 months to exceed $55 million… earn-out for the first year includes projections of revenue between $21 million to $27 million from G5 alone.” — Sam Rubin .
- “Gross margin… was primarily driven by differences in the product mix coupled with… yield issues… exasperated by a slowdown in supply chain… mostly attributable to China exports.” — Albert Miranda, CFO .
- “In the European market… began sustained delivery of infrared lens assemblies… for active duty use in FPV drone applications… launched OGI cameras… built with a non-germanium lens.” — Q2 release .
Q&A Highlights
- Supply chain and yields: Yield issues were “minor/normal,” but lack of quick material access (China) magnified delays; most pushed shipments shipped in first 6 weeks of Q3, but releases remain “too small” and day-by-day .
- G5 synergies and margins: Significant cross-selling expected (cooled + uncooled systems; OGI use-cases); not embedded in earn-out; camera business carries higher margins, expected to blend portfolio margins up .
- Programs of record / timing: Border Patrol order started shipping; naval prototypes expected “any day,” LRIP toward year-end; LRIP/prototypes in multimillion-dollar ranges .
- Profitability and seasonality: Despite G5’s Q3–Q4 seasonal dip, CFO expects combined EBITDA positive in June quarter; G5 seasonality skews to Q1–Q2 .
- Product ramps: Furnace camera orders ramping; OGI commercialization pacing behind until ppm quantification completes at customer site .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates (revenue/EPS) were not retrievable during this session, and the company did not provide formal numeric quarterly guidance. As a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses vs consensus for Q2 FY2025 (S&P Global consensus unavailable).
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term: Expect noisy quarters while China export constraints persist; shipment timing already pushed ~$0.75M into Q3, but management indicates most pushed units shipped early in Q3; watch for continued release normalization .
- Structural mix upgrade: G5’s cooled cameras plus uncooled portfolio should lift margins; CFO explicitly indicated blended margins move higher with cameras, and EBITDA should be positive in June quarter despite seasonal patterns .
- Defense pipeline as catalyst: Naval C-UAS and Border Patrol programs (programs of record) and the Lockheed missile program flight tests offer multi-year revenue visibility and stock catalysts as orders convert to LRIP/full-rate .
- OGI watch item: Commercial ramp tied to quantification testing; success could open oil & gas and industrial emissions monitoring TAM; delay extends timing but doesn’t negate opportunity .
- BlackDiamond substitution tailwind: Germanium export bans create conversion opportunities; LightPath’s materials and DLA qualification position it to benefit as customers redesign systems .
- Balance sheet and financing: Transaction financed via preferred equity and notes; bridge note converted; monitor integration execution, cash usage, and any incremental financing needs as programs ramp .
- Subsequent momentum: G5’s $4.8M qualification order post-quarter underpins pipeline-to-orders conversion; look for additional follow-on orders to validate ≥$55M 12-month revenue target .